SotA-R-3: Heat and Cyclones
(This is part 3 of the โStages of the Anthropocene, Revisitedโ Series (SotA-R).) Drought is (obviously) not the only kind of disaster caused by climate change, although it is probably the most severe in terms of its (long term) effects. Other types of โnaturalโ disaster that have to be taken into account given the purpose of this series include heatwaves, storms, and other forms of extreme weather. The focus in the present article will be on heat and tropical cyclones (including hurricanes and typhoons). heat While there are several papers projecting aspects of heat as an effect of climate change,...
On the Fragility of Civilization
(This is part 2 in the No Time for Utopia series.) Doom has always been a major attraction for some, perhaps even many people. There are whole subgenres of extreme (heavy) metal built on the aesthetics of death, doom, and decay. But โdoomโ in the form of extreme pessimism about the (near) future is also increasingly common in discussions about climate change and its effects. In Stages of the Anthropocene I tried to look into the more distant future. Whether what I found is an example of โdoomโ in this sense is debatable โ at least I didnโt predict human...
Stages of the Anthropocene
preface (2022) There are major mistakes in the predictions and calculations involved in this article. For an attempt to come up with better predictions (and thus, an update of this article), see the SotA-R series. The model results presented in the last episode thereof, suggest 3ยฐC to 5ยฐC of average global warming. (Original post) โ Climate scientists donโt often look at the distant future and when they do, their โpredictionsโ are so vague that they hardly count as predictions at all. Most published work on climate change focuses on the current century. There are good reasons, for this, of course...
Crisis and Inertia (2) โ Climate Change
(This is part 2 in the โCrisis and Inertiaโ series.) Surprisingly many people seem to be under the impression that climate change wonโt really affect them. โSure, it will get a little bit warmer, but thatโs what air conditioners are for, and sea level rise doesnโt really affect me because I donโt live on the coast and it is slow anyway.โ Something like that appears to be general idea. Unfortunately, that idea is wrong. Very wrong. Climate change will have much bigger effects than air conditioners and coastal protection can fix. The exact nature of those effects is uncertain, however,...