SotA-R-5: Modeling Carbon Emissions in Stage 1 of the Anthropocene β a First Attempt
(This is part 5 of the βStages of the Anthropocene, Revisitedβ Series (SotA-R).) Important Note (March 3, 2022) Due to a fundamental flaw in models 1, 2, and 3 in this series, the predictions for average global warming in this article are unreliable. Update (May 21, 2022) Model 4 fixes this problem and predicts +3.7Β°C. The aim of this series is a better prediction of the long-term prospects for human civilization (in the context of climate change) than the rather sketchy predictions made in Stages of the Anthropocene three years ago. The previous episodes in this series discussed some relavant...
A Theory of Disaster-Driven Societal Collapse and How to Prevent It
(abstract) β One of the effects of climate change is an increase in extreme weather and natural disasters. Unless COβ emissions are significantly reduced very soon, it is inevitable that the effects of disaster will exceed many (and ultimately all) societiesβ mitigation capacity. Compounding unmitigated disaster effects will slowly but surely push a society towards collapse. Because no part of the planet is safe from the increase in natural disaster intensity and because some of the effects of disasters β such as refugees and economic decline β spill over boundaries, this will eventually lead to global societal collapse. Furthermore, just...