A Theory of Disaster-Driven Societal Collapse and How to Prevent It
(abstract) β One of the effects of climate change is an increase in extreme weather and natural disasters. Unless COβ emissions are significantly reduced very soon, it is inevitable that the effects of disaster will exceed many (and ultimately all) societiesβ mitigation capacity. Compounding unmitigated disaster effects will slowly but surely push a society towards collapse. Because no part of the planet is safe from the increase in natural disaster intensity and because some of the effects of disasters β such as refugees and economic decline β spill over boundaries, this will eventually lead to global societal collapse. Furthermore, just...
The Lesser Dystopia
(This is part 3 in the No Time for Utopia series.) In On the Fragility of Civilization, I argued that due to the slowly compounding effects of an increasing number of relatively localized βnaturalβ disasters caused (directly or indirectly) by climate change, a vicious circle of failing disaster management, economic decline, civil unrest, and hunger will trigger a cascade of collapsing societies, eventually leading to global societal collapse in roughly 25 to 30 years from now (give or take a half decade). The world during and after collapse will be very different from what most of us have ever experienced,...
On the Fragility of Civilization
(This is part 2 in the No Time for Utopia series.) Doom has always been a major attraction for some, perhaps even many people. There are whole subgenres of extreme (heavy) metal built on the aesthetics of death, doom, and decay. But βdoomβ in the form of extreme pessimism about the (near) future is also increasingly common in discussions about climate change and its effects. In Stages of the Anthropocene I tried to look into the more distant future. Whether what I found is an example of βdoomβ in this sense is debatable β at least I didnβt predict human...