SotA-R-5: Modeling Carbon Emissions in Stage 1 of the Anthropocene โ a First Attempt
(This is part 5 of the โStages of the Anthropocene, Revisitedโ Series (SotA-R).) Important Note (March 3, 2022) Due to a fundamental flaw in models 1, 2, and 3 in this series, the predictions for average global warming in this article are unreliable. Update (May 21, 2022) Model 4 fixes this problem and predicts +3.7ยฐC. The aim of this series is a better prediction of the long-term prospects for human civilization (in the context of climate change) than the rather sketchy predictions made in Stages of the Anthropocene three years ago. The previous episodes in this series discussed some relavant...
SotA-R-2: Drought and Its Effects in the 2030s and 40s
(This is part 2 of the โStages of the Anthropocene, Revisitedโ Series (SotA-R).) Of all climate-change-related disasters, drought may very well be the worst. While other kinds of disasters might look more disastrous because of the clearly visible damage they cause, droughts destroys livelihoods. Drought is associated with water shortages (obviously), crop failures, famine, migration/refugees, and violent conflict (including civil war and war). Furthermore, droughts tend to affect larger areas, and the effects are, therefore, widespread. Persistent drought can make once fertile and pleasant lands inhospitable or even uninhabitable. For these reasons, significant changes in global precipitation patterns can have...
On the Fragility of Civilization
(This is part 2 in the No Time for Utopia series.) Doom has always been a major attraction for some, perhaps even many people. There are whole subgenres of extreme (heavy) metal built on the aesthetics of death, doom, and decay. But โdoomโ in the form of extreme pessimism about the (near) future is also increasingly common in discussions about climate change and its effects. In Stages of the Anthropocene I tried to look into the more distant future. Whether what I found is an example of โdoomโ in this sense is debatable โ at least I didnโt predict human...
Crisis and Inertia (2) โ Climate Change
(This is part 2 in the โCrisis and Inertiaโ series.) Surprisingly many people seem to be under the impression that climate change wonโt really affect them. โSure, it will get a little bit warmer, but thatโs what air conditioners are for, and sea level rise doesnโt really affect me because I donโt live on the coast and it is slow anyway.โ Something like that appears to be general idea. Unfortunately, that idea is wrong. Very wrong. Climate change will have much bigger effects than air conditioners and coastal protection can fix. The exact nature of those effects is uncertain, however,...