SotA-R-7: Current Models Predict 4Ā°C of Global Warming
(This is part 7 of the āStages of the Anthropocene, Revisitedā Series (SotA-R).) Important Note (March 3, 2022) Due to a fundamental flaw in models 1, 2, and 3 in this series, the predictions for average global warming in this article are unreliable. Update (May 21, 2022) Model 4 fixes this problem and predicts +3.7Ā°C. Thereās no plausible peaceful path to carbon-neutrality. If thereās one key takeaway from my attempts to model carbon (COā-equivalent) emissions in stage 1 of the anthropocene, itās that. Oh, and thatās it will get hot, of course. Unpleasantly hot. This the fourth in a series...
SotA-R-6: Modeling Carbon Emissions ā New Results, and Thoughts on Further Models
(This is part 6 of the āStages of the Anthropocene, Revisitedā Series (SotA-R).) Important Note (March 3, 2022) Due to a fundamental flaw in models 1, 2, and 3 in this series, the predictions for average global warming in this article are unreliable. Update (May 21, 2022) Model 4 fixes this problem and predicts +3.7Ā°C. As mentioned in the section ālimitations and alternative approachesā of the previous episode in this series, there were a couple of things I wanted to change in the model (i.e. spreadsheet) used to simulate global carbon (COā-equivalent) emissions in stage 1 of the anthropocene. The...
SotA-R-5: Modeling Carbon Emissions in Stage 1 of the Anthropocene ā a First Attempt
(This is part 5 of the āStages of the Anthropocene, Revisitedā Series (SotA-R).) Important Note (March 3, 2022) Due to a fundamental flaw in models 1, 2, and 3 in this series, the predictions for average global warming in this article are unreliable. Update (May 21, 2022) Model 4 fixes this problem and predicts +3.7Ā°C. The aim of this series is a better prediction of the long-term prospects for human civilization (in the context of climate change) than the rather sketchy predictions made in Stages of the Anthropocene three years ago. The previous episodes in this series discussed some relavant...
SotA-R-4: Preliminary Notes on Modeling Carbon Emission Scenarios in Stage 1 of the Anthropocene
(This is part 4 of the āStages of the Anthropocene, Revisitedā Series (SotA-R).) The purpose of this series is an update of the mid- and long-term prediction of aspects of the global climate relevant for the prospects of continuing human civilization in Stages of the Anthropocene. The idea is to develop a model that can be relatively easily expanded, fine-tuned, and corrected when new or better information becomes available. The present episode in the series consists of a number of notes of a relatively technical nature on how to build this model. COā emissions and economic growth The level of...
The New Denialism
The old denialism denied the reality of climate change. Funded by the fossil fuel industry it spouted disinformation and lies and fostered doubt. It changed climate change from an objectively observable fact into a political āopinionā. The old denialism is dead. Not even the fossil fuel industry denies climate change anymore. A new denialism has replaced it, however. The new denialism doesnāt deny climate change. In the contrary, it emphatically affirms it. The new denialism doesnāt deny that climate change is a serious problem either ā it admits that too. What the new denialists deny is how big the crisis...
SotA-R-3: Heat and Cyclones
(This is part 3 of the āStages of the Anthropocene, Revisitedā Series (SotA-R).) Drought is (obviously) not the only kind of disaster caused by climate change, although it is probably the most severe in terms of its (long term) effects. Other types of ānaturalā disaster that have to be taken into account given the purpose of this series include heatwaves, storms, and other forms of extreme weather. The focus in the present article will be on heat and tropical cyclones (including hurricanes and typhoons). heat While there are several papers projecting aspects of heat as an effect of climate change,...
SotA-R-2: Drought and Its Effects in the 2030s and 40s
(This is part 2 of the āStages of the Anthropocene, Revisitedā Series (SotA-R).) Of all climate-change-related disasters, drought may very well be the worst. While other kinds of disasters might look more disastrous because of the clearly visible damage they cause, droughts destroys livelihoods. Drought is associated with water shortages (obviously), crop failures, famine, migration/refugees, and violent conflict (including civil war and war). Furthermore, droughts tend to affect larger areas, and the effects are, therefore, widespread. Persistent drought can make once fertile and pleasant lands inhospitable or even uninhabitable. For these reasons, significant changes in global precipitation patterns can have...
Stages of the Anthropocene, Revisited
(This is part 1 of the āStages of the Anthropocene, Revisitedā Series (SotA-R).) In Stages of the Anthropocene (2018), I argued that if one aims to make mid- or long-term predictions of the effects of climate change on human civilization, it is useful (if not necessary) to distinguish three phases or stages within the time period known as the āanthropoceneā. There is some disagreement about when the anthropocene started ā the industrial revolution (mid 18th century) and the advent of the atomic age (mid 20th century) have been suggested, and an argument has even been made for the emergence of...
(Not) Too Late for What?
Some people seem to believe that it is too late to fight climate change. Others seem to believe that this kind of fatalism is as dangerous as climate change denialism (because both effectively advocate not doing anything). Itās hardly a secret that Iām rather pessimistic about climate change and its effects ā just have a look at what Iāve written about the topic before ā but that doesnāt mean that I think that it is ātoo lateā to fight climate change. Rather, I think that the notion of it being ātoo lateā (or not) in this context is nonsensical. The...
Predictions
A year ago, I predicted that the Covid19 pandemic would kill 35 million or even more people. Although mortality statistics suggest that the current official death count (about two and a half million at the time of writing) significantly underestimates the real number of deaths, it is also becoming increasingly unlikely that weāll reach numbers anywhere near that pessimistic prediction any time soon. The reason why my prediction was so far off is the same reason why many other predictions fail: they insufficiently take into account that human behavior changes in response to changes in circumstances. Typically, models used to...
An Upper Limit of 3.9Ā°C for Climate Change?
One of the oldest quantitative claims in climate science is that the likely global average temperature increase due to a doubling of atmospheric COā is between 1.5 and 4.5Ā°C. This range dates back to 1979 and has remained unchanged until yesterday with the publication of a refined estimate by a large group of researchers in the Review of Geophysics. Based on three different and independent lines of research (modeling, historical records, and paleoclimate records), they conclude that the range is between 2.6Ā°C and 3.9Ā°C. This had lead some media to proclaim that both optimists and ādoomsayersā have been proven wrong,...
Lessons from the Ongoing Disaster (for the Next One)
Presumably, you are aware that weāre in the middle of a disaster. Thatās unpleasant ā to say the least ā but itās also quite instructive. There is much we can learn from the ongoing disaster and humanityās responses to it. But whether we can use those lessons to avert the even bigger disaster looming on the horizon is questionable. Rather, it seems that the most important thing that we can learn from the corona crisis is that we as a species may very well be incapable of avoiding catastrophy. ignore and deny For months, the general attitude of most governments...