SotA-R-6: Modeling Carbon Emissions โ New Results, and Thoughts on Further Models
(This is part 6 of the โStages of the Anthropocene, Revisitedโ Series (SotA-R).) Important Note (March 3, 2022) Due to a fundamental flaw in models 1, 2, and 3 in this series, the predictions for average global warming in this article are unreliable. Update (May 21, 2022) Model 4 fixes this problem and predicts +3.7ยฐC. As mentioned in the section โlimitations and alternative approachesโ of the previous episode in this series, there were a couple of things I wanted to change in the model (i.e. spreadsheet) used to simulate global carbon (COโ-equivalent) emissions in stage 1 of the anthropocene. The...
SotA-R-5: Modeling Carbon Emissions in Stage 1 of the Anthropocene โ a First Attempt
(This is part 5 of the โStages of the Anthropocene, Revisitedโ Series (SotA-R).) Important Note (March 3, 2022) Due to a fundamental flaw in models 1, 2, and 3 in this series, the predictions for average global warming in this article are unreliable. Update (May 21, 2022) Model 4 fixes this problem and predicts +3.7ยฐC. The aim of this series is a better prediction of the long-term prospects for human civilization (in the context of climate change) than the rather sketchy predictions made in Stages of the Anthropocene three years ago. The previous episodes in this series discussed some relavant...
SotA-R-4: Preliminary Notes on Modeling Carbon Emission Scenarios in Stage 1 of the Anthropocene
(This is part 4 of the โStages of the Anthropocene, Revisitedโ Series (SotA-R).) The purpose of this series is an update of the mid- and long-term prediction of aspects of the global climate relevant for the prospects of continuing human civilization in Stages of the Anthropocene. The idea is to develop a model that can be relatively easily expanded, fine-tuned, and corrected when new or better information becomes available. The present episode in the series consists of a number of notes of a relatively technical nature on how to build this model. COโ emissions and economic growth The level of...
Carbon-neutrality by 2050 (version of December 2020)
(Some corrections were made in this article on March 2, 2022. The most recent version of this article can be found here.) This year several governments announced that their countries will be carbon neutral by 2050. This is a cheap promise, as the target is so far in the future that it doesnโt commit them to do anything significant now, but even if the commitment would be real, one may wonder how probable it is that the target will actually be reached, and whether it will be enough. These are two different questions, of course, and I will try to...